FORECASTING REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BASED ON ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENEOUS INDICATORS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17278721Keywords:
Regional economic development, endogenous indicators, exogenous indicators, forecasting, gross regional product, investments, foreign trade, employment, economic model, regression, time series.Abstract
This study examines the issue of forecasting regional economic development based on endogenous and exogenous indicators. The complex development of the regional economy depends on many internal (endogenous) and external (exogenous) factors, the systematic analysis and forecasting of which allows increasing the effectiveness of regional economic policy. The gross regional product, employment rate, industrial production, volume of the service sector, etc. were selected as endogenous indicators. Exogenous indicators include factors such as investment volume, foreign trade turnover, state support, and global market conditions. The study used econometric modeling, regression, and time series analysis methods. The results showed that endogenous factors play a significant role in short-term forecasts, while exogenous factors determine the prospects for long-term sustainable economic growth. Alternative scenarios of regional economic development were developed based on the forecasting model.
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